Updated Census Estimates show a positive trend in parts of Southeast Missouri

One of the data points related to a region’s stability or growth that is easy to track is census data. In the United States, we physically count the population every 10 years during the decennial census. But each March, the US Census Bureau releases county-level estimates as of July 1 of the previous year, they call the Vintage series. Looking at the estimates for Southeast Missouri indicates a positive shift in the recent trendlines.

Historic census data indicates that the overall population of Southeast Missouri effectively peaked during the 2010 census, and the last 15 years have been a relatively steady overall decline in population throughout the region. While there are certainly some areas or counties that have remained stable or even grown like Cape Girardeau, Madison, and St. Francois, the vast majority of the region has faced a shrinking population.

The most recent estimates released on March 12 of this year show a slowing of the rate of decline, and in some counties even a reversal of the past trends into positive numbers. Since 2023, the overall population in a 23-county area has seen an estimated decline of -0.79% but estimates for 2023 indicate that the same region saw a slight 0.20% gain in overall population, with 13 of the 23 counties showing growth year over year.

When looking at overall numbers, this trend tends to reflect similar changes at the national level, where more counties saw growth compared to the previous year’s estimates. While this is certainly positive news for the region, rural communities are still at a significant disadvantage to the more urban areas of our country. While our regional growth rate was just 0.20%, the average growth rate in the U.S. in counties with populations above 100,000 was 1.1% or just more than 5x our regional growth.

Finding ways to continue to attract and retain talent to our region continues to be a high priority for long-term business success. The most recent data shows us that efforts to grow are moving in the right direction in Southeast Missouri.